An analysis thread by @DeFaakto, retweeted by Sh1n (Dave) on July 13, 2026, explores whether current events are setting the stage for the "Ahmadinejad scenario" detailed in a May 2026 New York Times investigation.

Are we witnessing the groundwork for activating the 'Ahmadinejad scenario'?

The thread first recaps the NYT report: Israel's Mossad allegedly recruited former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an intelligence asset and potential post-regime leader years ago. In 2024, then-Mossad chief David Barnea met him in Budapest under cover of a climate conference. Israel secretly funded his housing and travel while Ahmadinejad underwent a transformation—softening his rhetoric, criticizing the IRGC and corruption, learning English, and changing his appearance.

The turning point came on February 28, 2026, the first day of the US-Israel-Iran war. Ahmadinejad's home in Tehran's Narmak district was struck, not to assassinate him but to eliminate his IRGC guards and free him from house arrest, according to US sources cited by the paper. Wounded, he was moved by Mossad operatives to a safe house and disappeared for months.

Recent developments point to a possible reactivation: after months in hiding, Ahmadinejad suddenly appeared at Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral on July 6, and on July 10 held his first documented political meeting since the war, with regional committees of the "Movement Towards Spring."

The analyst concludes:

I read the timing as no coincidence. His political return coincides with the most dangerous wave of regional escalation since the war began (closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. blockade, renewed strikes). If the current Iranian regime is under renewed existential pressure, re-introducing Ahmadinejad as an 'alternative, moderate' face now may not be coincidental, but an early step to activate the post-regime scenario revealed by the New York Times.