Sh1n reposted the following assessment from @TheStudyofWar, which said Iran’s apparent challenges in consolidating control over the Strait of Hormuz are likely driving its current regional campaign against the United States and its allies.

The assessment said Iran’s proposal to manage the strait, an attempt to formalize Iranian control there, has met significant resistance from other Persian Gulf littoral states. Iran is also reportedly attempting to overcome operational constraints on its ability to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Other key takeaways from the assessment:

  • Iranian regime media acknowledged on September 14 that Iran’s control over the strait may be waning. According to the assessment, this suggests that some regime factions recognize how current constraints are affecting Iran’s ability to achieve its positive objectives.
  • Yemeni government-aligned forces appear to have halted Houthi advances south along Yemen’s Red Sea coastal plain since September 11. Sustained Houthi control of Dhubab, Mokha, and the Hanish Islands preserves the group’s ability to threaten international shipping in the Red Sea.
  • The Iraqi federal government has recently taken steps to demonstrate that it takes the threat posed by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to other countries seriously, including closing border crossings with Iran. The assessment said these actions are unlikely to stop the flow of Iranian arms used by the militias to attack US regional assets and allies as part of Iran’s broader campaign in the US-Iran conflict.
  • Iran is reportedly prioritizing newly formed, IRGC-directed Iraqi militia cells over its historic Iraqi partners for operations against the United States and its regional allies. The assessment said this may reflect command-and-control problems with some established partners, while some Iraqi militias appear dissatisfied with Iran’s development of new networks in Iraq.